Endgame For Delta Variant Nears, Better Christmas Possible

With the continuous decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases, a member of the OCTA Research group expressed optimism that the Delta-driven surge is nearing its “endgame” and that the country may have a better Christmas season this year.

OCTA fellow Guido David, however, warned that the downward trend seen in Metro Manila and other hotspots may be reversed if compliance to minimum health protocols declines.

“I share the optimism that we might be in for a good ending to the year, a good Christmas. We might be seeing the endgame for the Delta variant… not yet right now, but it’s already unfolding,” David said in an interview with “The Chiefs” on Cignal TV’s One News on Monday night, Sept. 27.

“(But) we need to have compliance with health protocols for this theory to work… We’re not there yet, but we’re going to get there probably by October. I think by November, we should really be OK. I’m banking on that unless there is a new variant,” he added in a mix of English and Filipino.

David noted that previous surges experienced in the country were driven by a new COVID-19 variant, which often last for around two to three months.

While this is also true in some countries affected by the Delta variant, David also noted that there are those experiencing prolonged surge such as the United States partly due to lack of compliance to protocols such as wearing of facemasks.

According to the OCTA fellow, the Philippines has been on a downward trend in new cases since the peak last Sept. 11.

As of Monday, the reproduction number – which indicates the number of individuals a positive person can infect – is at .99.

The average number of daily new cases in the past week also dropped by 10% compared to the preceding week, he added.

Asked if Metro Manila may now be downgraded to a lower alert level, David said it is up to the Department of Health and the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases.

“The trend is being sustained. The downward trend started from Sept. 11 when the peak happened, we were still under MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine). It’s been 11 days since Sept. 16 when we started this new alert level system, and we haven’t seen a spike in cases,” he said.

But he noted that the region still has high intensive care unit utilization (ICU) rate and average daily new cases per 100,000 population.

As of Sept. 25, 76% of ICU beds in Metro Manila were occupied. It also recorded an average of 4,220 daily new cases, translating to “critical” 30.22 new infections per 100,000 people.

During the interview, David also noted a steady increase in new cases in some areas, particularly parts of Regions 1 and 2, as well as Cordillera Administrative Region.

Source: One News

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